As I predicted at the beginning of the season everyone understimated the Eagles this season. While some of the reasoning may have changed the concept remains the same. I will now make a pre Patriot League championship decison that the Eagles will win their first ever Championship and go on to the NCAA tornament. Here are five reasons while that will happen:
1. Garrison Carr.
This kid is having a breakout season. Last year he averaged only 4.2 points per game while this year he is averaging 18.3. He has already shattered the Patriot League record for three pointers and seems unstoppable. No defense, even though we are well into the second game of each matchup, has been able to find a way to shut him down. He has too quick of a release and can change the swing of momentum in a game just by getting the ball in his hands. This is not a fluke or a lucky streak. His play has proven sustainable.
2. Bench Production:
In a league not known for bench depth, especially American, the suprising production coming of the bench recently has been a difference maker. The third average scorer on the team, Brian Gilmore with 8.6 points per game, is the 6th man. His play making abilities are tremendous and he plays with a flare that brings excitement to an otherwise fundementally based system. Another suprise off the bench has been Jordan Nicholas. While his scoring hasnt been extreme his shot blocking and rebounding has made a huge difference. He is second in shot blocking by only 1 to Guibunda and his rebounding, especially defensively has been a decision maker.
3. Home Court Advantage Minus the Crowd
The men have performed well this year at home...just not in front of large crowds. One of their three losses this year came to Holy Cross (was 0-5 at the time) in front of a Phil Bender crowd. While home court seems to work out well they cannot play well with the bleachers moving and shaking. Luckily the semis and finals will be played while American is on spring break this year American will have the home court....without the crowd.
4. Weak Patriot League
While American has had an outstanding season it does not hurt that the league is fairly weak. Over the years it has always been one or two key players on every patriot league team that did the damage. This year American is the team that possess those one or two players in Garrison Carr and Derek Mercer. Teams like Holy Cross and Bucknell do not have that dynamic player this year and that is why they have struggled.
5. Cornelio is Coming Into His Own
Cornelio was one of the most heavily recruited power forwards coming out of high school when he went to Georgetown. His performance there and his sophomore year at American were lackluster at best. This year has proven to be a turnaround year for him. There have been long streaks of brilliance where his ability to get to the hoop have been demonstrated. He is taking better control of the ball and getting key rebounds. Fouling is still a problem and with better decisions he will be a huge asset in the tournament. The Patriot League this year, with the exception of Clifford on Holy Cross, drastically lacks a downlow presence and Cornelio could prove vital down the stretch.
